I understand what you’re saying. And for that reason, I think specialized applications will not be easily made into a cloud service. Also, mundane applications that have specialist requirements because of certain business needs will also not be good candidates for hosted services or cloud providers.

The big shift will be for the majority of cases where someone without specialist requirements just needs a Zimbra server for groupware, or a hosted SQL Server for culling usage data, or a wiki for internal documentation. The majority of IT shops will have at least some applications that could more easily and efficiently be handled by a service provider. I suspect that the basics at work in the creeping featurism phenomena will cause managers to push more out into the cloud than should be, which will in turn push cloud providers to get better (not without some epic failures in the process, unfortunately).

Eventually I see all but specialist workloads in the cloud. Not many scenarios need a modem hanging from a server. =)

No SLA (overhead in procedures and speed and responsiveness = loose money) can substitute my ability to jump into data center and ‘make it work’. Imagine having to do deal with some older technologies – yes 80% of business do not run on fancy phones and 2.0 employees -mobile worker concepts – manufacturing and product based companies.
Say you need to install a modem and attach a regular phone line to it…a 5min. job for seasoned admin while you puffy could based tech will require…paperwork,1800 tel to music on hold, certified hardware so it doesn’t break their SLA (cover their own a**).
Efficiency? (eg. above)
Data Security? (some data loss or theft can not be substituted by $)
Flexibility? (change of mind or business process)
Backup and accessibility of media?
…and the granddaddy of all COST.

Younger generations are looking forward to this as they think that sysadmin is nothing more than clicking…or even better ‘tapping’ on their smart phones…something that they can train their cousin to do.

If it even sticks….great, us techies can remove from the nuisance of a user and micro manger to dealing with mostly technology. After all, when it hits the fan all calls are routed to those who know what they are doing.

It is a trend…and we know what happens to trends